Traders at JPMorgan Chase & Co, a Wall Street bank notorious for banning prominent conservatives, have designed a new index which is devoted solely to monitoring and quantifying the ramifications President Donald Trump’s tweets have on the financial market and interest rates.
JP Morgan developed the new volatility model, which it calls the “Volfefe Index” in reference to Trump’s viral 2017 “covfefe” tweet, after observing the direct impact the president’s tweets have on trade, share prices, market rates, the Federal Reserve and other market-sensitive topics.
According to JP Morgan’s model, at least 146 of the 4,000 non-retweets Trump has posted on his personal Twitter account since winning the presidency in 2016 have directly influenced market trajectory, prompting the company to create a machine learning technique that identifies and gauges the president’s “market moving tweets for the index.”
“The president has produced more than 10,000 tweets since taking office, at a pace that has accelerated in recent months … The subject of these tweets has increasingly turned toward market-moving topics, most prominently trade and monetary policy,” JPMorgan Chase said in a statement.
“And we find strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved U.S. rates markets immediately after publication,” the company continued.”[W]e fold this index into our volatility fair value model, to demonstrate the president’s remarks on this social media platform has played a statistically significant role in elevating implied volatility.”
The index accurately gauges a substantial fraction of moves in the market’s forecast of probable movement rates in the short-term – a 2-year to 5 year span, however it does not explain a “measurable fraction” of moves it implieds in the long haul – 10 year rates, analysts explained.
While Trump unprecedentedly uses Twitter to blast political foes and the media, his major market-moving tweets mention “China,” “dollars,” “tariffs,” “products and “trade,” the JP Morgan analysis reveals.
Trump has excoriated China on Twitter amid the ongoing trade war between the communist country and the United States, warning the conflict will ultimately plunder the Chinese economy while touting his tariff policy.
Vice president of JP Morgan’s U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy, Munier Salem warns that publicly-traded companies are now beholden to Trump’s tweets.
“Trade and monetary policy have become an increasing focus for the executive branch, and everything from casual sentiments to seemingly formal policy intentions have been disseminated, globally and instantaneously, via this carefully scrutinized social media platform,” Salem wrote. “In response, a broad swath of assets from single-name stocks to macro products have found their price dynamics increasingly beholden to a handful of tweets from the commander in chief.”
While Trump averages 10 tweets a day, he typically sounds off with market-impacting tweets between noon and 2 p.m. and is three times more likely to tweet at 1 p.m. than any other hour, according to the Volfefe index.
The commander-in-chief has also used the platform to drive the world’s largest economy by celebrating its strength.
“Before U.S. stocks peaked in late January, he drew a direct connection between the increase in market value of American companies and his administration’s pro-growth policies on more than 10 occasions in that month alone,” Bloomberg reports.
Meanwhile, Chase Bank, JP Morgan’s financial giant, is banning prominent conservatives because of their political beliefs.
Chase Bank canceled the accounts of conservative journalists Laura Loomer, Joe Biggs and Martina Markota and conservative activist Enrique Tarrio, in the space of just a few weeks this past January and February.
After joining forces with left-wing organizations that have a history of targeting conservatives, including Now This and Southern Poverty Law Center, Chase canceled Tarrio’s account. At the time, Tarrio, a Cuban American and chairman of the Proud Boys, was selling “Roger Stone Did Nothing Wrong” t-shirts on his website.
JP Morgan Chase has contributed over $1 Million to the Southern Poverty Law Center, a radical left-wing organization whose stated mission is to “destroy” its political enemies on the right, spends its time working to sabotage conservatives, falsely accusing conservatives of white supremacy and putting them on “hate lists.”
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